Housing Market Impact Dashboard

Housing Market Impact Dashboard

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Solhemmet Research

This analysis explores how senior living development can influence the housing market by releasing underused homes and reshaping residential mobility flows. The analysis connects vacancy, downsizing, and household behavior to estimate potential impacts on supply and affordability.

Housing Units (total)
5.97M
Census 2021
Vacant Homes
723k
12.1% of stock — ↓ vs 735k in 2011
Vacant in Good Condition
~485k
No works needed or only minor repairs
Underoccupied (36.6%)
~3.9M
people in homes with extra rooms

Composition of Portugal's Housing Stock

Primary Residence: 4,142,581 (69.4%)
Secondary Residence: 1,104,881 (18.5%)
Vacant for sale/rent: 348,097 (5.8%)
Vacant for other reasons: 375,118 (6.3%)

Source: INE, 2021 Census. Of ~723k vacant homes, ~375k are vacant for "other reasons" — many linked to deceased older owners or pending inheritances.

Why So Many Vacant Homes? The Link to Ageing

Estimates based on INE 2021 Census and IHRU 2025 report

The cycle of older adults' homes

A significant share of vacant homes is directly linked to ageing: death of older homeowners without active heirs, unresolved inherited estates blocked among family members, or older adults who moved to care homes but keep the home vacant due to emotional attachment or hope of returning. In 2024, 36.6% of the population lived in underoccupied homes — mostly older adults living alone or couples in 3-4 bedroom family homes. At the same time, 1.2 million people live in overcrowded homes. This is a “deep mismatch” between supply and need.

The Older Homeowner Profile

36.6%
Population in underoccupied homes (2024)
~3.9 million people live in homes with more rooms than needed
11.2%
Population in overcrowded homes (2024)
~1.2 million people with insufficient space
~69%
Mortgage-free owners aged 65+
Most older adults are homeowners with fully paid homes
77.3%
Homeownership rate (Center)
Highest in the country — most inland older adults are homeowners
Sources: INE — Censos 2021 (Parque Habitacional) · IHRU — Estudo "Territórios com falta de oferta habitacional" (2025) · PORDATA · Idealista News · CASA SAPO · Empathia / SIL 2025 · CGD — Mais-valias seniores · Gov.pt — Medidas 2025 · Observador · Público · INE — Estimativas Pop. 2024 · Cushman & Wakefield. Note: downsizing scenarios and stock-release projections are illustrative estimates for analytical purposes.
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